Weekly Economic Briefing

The $74 trillion dollar question

25 July 2017

Global Overview

  • Many of the most pertinent questions facing the global economic outlook centre on policy - will the US Congress make progress on its legislative agenda, how will Brexit negotiations play out and how will the party congress in China shape the outlook for the next five years?
  • In the US, in addition to policy uncertainties, the path of business investment; labour productivity; and the impact they have on inflation and monetary policy remain key.
  • Monetary policy in the UK and Europe are key unknowns over the remaining months of 2017 - both how the BoE steers through higher inflation and an uncertain growth outlook, but also how the ECB guides a path to tapering.
  • Japan's Abenomics project is struggling. How Abe restores credibility to the Bank of Japan and handles the fiscal framework will be key to whether Abenomics can get back on track.
  • China will be the focus for the remainder of 2017. With the once-every-five year's party congress due this autumn, changes to senior leadership and guidance on policy direction will help shape the EM outlook.


Whether or not business investment growth picks up and broadens, core inflation accelerates and Congress passes meaningful structural reforms are some of the main macro questions facing investors in the second half of the year.



The battle to understand the economic outlook in the UK continues, both for markets and the BoE. Meanwhile Brexit negotiation skirmishes are just beginning.



In the Eurozone, the first half of the year got off to a flying start. However, ECB policymakers are likely to find it increasingly tricky to tread the tapering line.


Japan & Developed Asia

Prime Minister Abe has some difficult decisions ahead. He will need to be bold despite the recent drop in his approval ratings.


Emerging Markets

China is poised for both internal and external changes. The upcoming party congress will reshuffle the senior leadership and US pressures could force a change in the bilateral relationship.


Standard Life Investments’ Global Strategy team provide regular analysis of the key economic data that has been influencing financial markets.

Available on a weekly basis, the Weekly Economic Briefing takes a detailed look at the global economic issues that have been impacting our investment strategy. The regional approach aims to provide an easy-to-navigate guide to the most recent developments in the global economy.

The document is intended for institutional investors and investment professionals only and should not be distributed to or relied upon by retail clients.

All information, opinions and estimates in this document are those of Standard Life Investments, and constitute our best judgement as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or other reasons.

The views and conclusions expressed in this communication are for general interest only and should not be taken as investment advice or as an invitation to purchase or sell any specific security.

Any data contained herein which is attributed to a third party ("Third Party Data") is the property of (a) third party supplier(s) (the "Owner") and is licensed for use by Standard Life Aberdeen**. Third Party Data may not be copied or distributed. Third Party Data is provided "as is" and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Owner, Standard Life Aberdeen** or any other third party (including any third party involved in providing and/or compiling Third Party Data) shall have any liability for Third Party Data or for any use made of Third Party Data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither the Owner nor any other third party sponsors, endorses or promotes the fund or product to which Third Party Data relates.

**Standard Life Aberdeen means the relevant member of Standard Life Aberdeen group, being Standard Life Aberdeen plc together with its subsidiaries, subsidiary undertakings and associated companies (whether direct or indirect) from time to time.