Weekly Economic Briefing

Risky Business

23 May 2017

Global Overview

  • Although spillovers from political risk into market risk have so far been limited, a heightened sense of political uncertainty across both developed and emerging markets could jeopardise the continued global economic recovery.
  • In the US, despite recent allegations, impeachment still remains a tail-risk scenario with Republicans in control of the House and Senate. However, prolonged uncertainty alone could weigh on growth and risk assets.
  • Macron's success in the French presidential election removes a major source of near-term concern but will not remove the broader Eurosceptic populist impulse.
  • Although the prospect for sweeping legislative change in South Korea is limited, the election of new president Moon Jae-in reduces domestic policy uncertainty. However, South Korea remains exposed to substantial external risks.
  • The latest Brazilian political crisis threatens the developing economic recovery. A reduction in political capital reduces President Temer's ability to lead and jeopardises crucial structural reforms that underpin the optimistic outlook.


The barriers to US presidential impeachment are high, especially with Republicans in control of both the executive and legislative branches. Regardless, prolonged uncertainty could weaken sentiment.



The vote to leave the European Union has created uncertainty over a range of economic and policy issues. Firms and households will have to live with this for some time.



The French election result temporarily removes the risk of a major member exiting the Eurozone. However, the next risk is just around the corner…


Japan & Developed Asia

Hopes are high for South Korea's incoming president. However, delivering on his political and economic pledges will prove challenging.


Emerging Markets

The re-emergence of a political scandal threatening the Brazilian president threatens the outlook for much-needed reforms and risks Brazil's economic recovery.


Standard Life Investments’ Global Strategy team provide regular analysis of the key economic data that has been influencing financial markets.

Available on a weekly basis, the Weekly Economic Briefing takes a detailed look at the global economic issues that have been impacting our investment strategy. The regional approach aims to provide an easy-to-navigate guide to the most recent developments in the global economy.

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